KUALA LUMPUR, Sept 27 — By a small margin, Malaysians think opposition leader Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim would make a better prime minister compared with Datuk Seri Najib Razak, according to a survey conducted recently by the independent Merdeka Centre.
In the same survey, Malaysians also appear more divided than ever over their support for the country's political leadership.
There are also sharp differences in preferences between the different races, with a majority of non-Malays supporting Anwar, while more Malays preferred Najib.
Between Sept 11 and 22, Merdeka Centre carried out a leadership performance perception on a cross section of 1,002 people of voting age from the three main ethnic communities in the country.
Among the questions asked was: "Between Najib Razak and Anwar Ibrahim, who do you think makes a better prime minister?"
Najib garnered a 33.8 per cent average total support among the three major races. Anwar edged him by a margin of less than six per cent — he garnered an average total of 39.3 per cent.
The difference is more conspicuous when the show of support is broken down according to the ethnicity of those polled.
The split was apparent among racial lines, with Najib drawing as much as 47.3 per cent support from the Malay community. Anwar trailed with just 32.5 per cent.
The opposition leader gained greater support among non-Malays, receiving the support of 37.4 per cent of Chinese voters and a whopping 85 per cent from the Indians.
In comparison, Najib only won the approval of 18.4 per cent of Chinese voters and just five per cent of Indians thought he would make a better prime minister.
Of note was the high percentage of voters who remained non-commital. More than 40 per cent of Chinese voters polled expressed no preference.
Based on the poll results, Malay support for Najib is significantly stronger than that for Anwar.
Political analyst Tricia Yeoh says the party factor is a very strong featuring factor with the non-Malay communities.
"It is possible they view Najib as continuing to perpetuate the same kind of politics that has plagued Malaysia through Umno," she said.
"Anwar will need to fight for Malay support most prominently since Najib may continue to be seen as the final bastion of support for the Malay position," she added.
Another political analyst, Khoo Kay Peng, sees it differently.
"No doubt Najib commands higher support among the Malay community because of the status of Umno as a Malay party. It has been representing the Malays for a long time. But at 47.3 per cent, the support is not really very high for Najib. It's not much off Abdullah's support," he said.
Based on the same Merdeka Centre report, Abdullah still enjoys 50.7 per cent support from the Malays."The key is that Najib does not get much support from the Chinese and Indians. Najib is still seen as a Malay leader.
"If you want to be the prime minister, you must have support from across the board," he said.
"Anwar stands a much better chance because he gets support from over 30 per cent of the Chinese and the Indians, predominantly from the Indians, which is consistent with past reports," he pointed out.
In a toss up between who will become the next prime minister, he felt it would definitely be Anwar.
But for Khalid Samad, the Pas MP for Shah Alam and an ally of Anwar, the results are frightening for the Pakatan Rakyat alliance.
He said the results of the survey showed government media propaganda still held sway, especially among the rural Malays.
He is concerned that much of the Malay media has portrayed a negative impression of Anwar as being an "immoral guy" and being a stooge of the United States.
"Basically, Umno-Barisan Nasional has been quite successful in conning Malays into believing that Anwar is selling out the Malays and that is the reason for the low percentage of support for Anwar," said Khalid.
"These are not very encouraging results if it is representative of the entire population. It means there is a problem. Anwar will have to work harder.
"It's important he should have at least a 50-50 situation among Malays. That would suffice," he stressed.
But he does not think that the sample poll is a true reflection of the voting populace.
"I don't think that Anwar in the actual situation is that far behind Najib. I would expect 47 per cent for Najib and 45 per cent for Anwar.
"The difference, almost 15 per cent difference in support from Malays, gives the impression that if Pakatan Rakyat comes to power, the position of the Malays will be jeopardised.
"But no one race will lose out under Pakatan leadership," he said.
Posted by Dr. Mahathir Mohamad at September 23, 2008 5:40 PM (Versi Bahasa Malaysia di akhir artikel ini)
1. The goings on in the UMNO Supreme Council are supposed to be secret. So it was quite a surprise when the press reported some important details regarding the Supreme Council's meeting on Thursday, September 18. What is even more surprising is that the reports expose the attacks against Dato Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi by several members of the council and their demand that the transfer of power should take place before the divisional meetings which would nominate the candidates for President.
2. It appears that the words used by some of the members were very strong. Dato Seri Rafidah Aziz even attacked the roles played by Abdullah's son-in-law Khairy Jamaluddin and the PM's son, Kamaluddin.
3. So harsh were the words used that Abdullah's face changed and he was reeling from the onslaught when Dato Seri Najib Tun Razak, ever the protector of Abdullah, stopped the proceedings. Najib promised he would speak on the matter with Abdullah.
4. It seems that the other Supreme Council members were not happy as once again controversial council matters were made into private deals between Abdullah and Najib. It is the kind of negation of council rights that both Abdullah and Najib had frequently resorted to. The two would later come out with decisions which were unsatisfactory to the council members. Najib would then stress on the need to be united and loyal to the President.
5. This time around it is not going to be any different. When faced with a tricky problem Abdullah would consult his family members, usually his son and son-in-law but now also his wife.
6. It is well known that the family is enjoying the power and freedom to shape Abdullah's decisions based on their own personal interest i.e., to accumulate as much wealth as possible and to ensure Khairy's political ambitions, including to become the country's youngest Prime Minister.
7. By the time Abdullah meets Najib he would have been briefed by his family on what to say. And Najib being Najib would then accept Abdullah's solution to the problem. In this case he would want to insist on staying until June 2010 or maybe a short while before. Najib would then have the task of selling this solution to the Supreme Council. By doing so Najib would go down further in the estimation of the members and of the public when Najib's behaviour is leaked to the public.
8. When UMNO was formed the founders wanted to ensure that no decisions which seem to contradict the basis of the party's struggle would get through without the Supreme Council approving them. What happened to Dato Onn Jaafar, the first President (Yang di-Pertua) of UMNO is an excellent example. The President was not obeyed blindly. Instead because he proposed something contrary to the basis of the party's struggle, it was rejected and as a man of honour he resigned.
9. For almost 50 years the Supreme Council played this role. Thus when (Tun) Musa Hitam resigned as Deputy President of the party, the Supreme Council did not just agree with the President but sat until the early hours of the morning and then decided, the President's views notwithstanding, to send a delegation of senior members to London to persuade Musa to reassume his post of Deputy President of the party and Deputy Prime Minister. Musa agreed to return as Deputy President, though not as Deputy Prime Minister. And so he was well positioned to bring me down by persuading Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah to contest for president against me. Incidentally during his campaign to become UMNO Deputy President he claimed that I backed him.
10. But after Abdullah took over party Presidency and became Prime Minister the character of the Supreme Council changed completely. It became the personal instrument of Abdullah for approving and legitimising all and everything he did.
11. I believe on Thursday the worm turned partially. A few members found courage to demand the early resignation of Abdullah. Of course the "Yes-men" did not turn. The worm became so twisted that there is real danger it would break into two.
12. I suppose this would worry Najib who wanted a peaceful transfer of power in order to keep the party intact. So he is likely to accept any scheme which would allow Abdullah to relinquish his post in a blaze of glory.
13. Unfortunately Najib will not get his wish. There has never been a President of UMNO who is as much disliked and even hated by the people as Abdullah. Malays, Chinese and Indians, whether members of the Government component parties or mere supporters or ordinary people all want Abdullah to go, the sooner the better.
14. The only people who want him to stay are those who owe their positions to him, or who benefited from contracts and other largesse distributed by him. For some, including civil servants there is just fear of him which keeps them silent but sullen.
15. Strangely the true supporters of Dato Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi as Prime Minister and UMNO President are members of the opposition. Karpal Singh, Anwar Ibrahim and Nik Abdul Aziz Nik Mat want him to stay, at least till the next election.
16. However it is not for love of him but because they believe that with him leading the Barisan Nasional the opposition stands a better chance of winning the 13th General Election and forming a Government. They feel they are within reach of their objective and did not want to see the renegades of UMNO, MCA, MIC, Gerakan and PPP returning to the fold and make defeating the BN probably an impossible task.
17. So much for the Supreme Council which is no longer Supreme.
1. Perbincangan di dalam Majlis Tertinggi UMNO sepatutnya rahsia. Jadi amat memeranjatkan apabila akhbar melaporkan beberapa butiran penting berkenaan mesyuarat Majlis Tertinggi yang diadakan pada hari Khamis, 18hb September. Apa yang lebih mengejutkan lagi ialah laporan tersebut mendedahkan tentangan terhadap Dato Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi oleh beberapa ahli majlis dan desakan oleh mereka agar peralihan kuasa diadakan sebelum mesyuarat Bahagian-bahagian yang akan menamakan calon Presiden.
2. Difahamkan bahasa yang digunakan sesetengah ahli agak keras. Dato Seri Rafidah Aziz turut membangkitkan peranan yang dimainkan menantu Abdullah, Khairy Jamaluddin dan anak beliau, Kamaluddin.
3. Begitu keras bahasa yang digunakan hinggakan muka Abdullah berubah. Beliau nampak tertekan dengan desakan ahli majlis apabila Dato Seri Najib Tun Razak, yang sentiasa menjadi penyelamat Abdullah, menghentikan mesyuarat. Najib berjanji untuk bercakap dengan Abdullah berkenaan hal ini.
4. Difahamkan ahli Majlis Tertinggi yang lain merasa tidak puas hati kerana sekali lagi perkara kontroversi yang melibatkan majlis dijadikan bahan perbincangan tertutup antara Abdullah dan Najib. Menidakkan hak majlis adalah sesuatu yang sering dilakukan Abdullah dan Najib. Mereka berdua akan membuat keputusan yang tidak pun memuaskan hati ahli majlis. Najib kemudian akan tekankan betapa pentingnya untuk bersatu dan setia kepada Presiden.
5. Keadaan kali ini juga sama seperti sebelumnya. Apabila berhadapan dengan sesuatu masalah rumit, Abdullah akan meminta nasihat keluarganya, terutama anak dan menantunya termasuk sekarang ini isterinya.
6. Umum mengetahui keluarganya mempunyai kuasa dan kebebasan untuk mempengaruhi segala keputusan-keputusan Abdullah berdasarkan kepentingan diri mereka iaitu untuk mengaut sebanyak mana kekayaan yang mungkin dan untuk mempastikan cita-cita politik Khairi termasuk untuk menjadi Perdana Menteri termuda.
7. Apabila tiba masanya untuk bertemu Najib, Abdullah sudahpun diberi taklimat oleh keluarganya tentang apa yang harus diperkatakan. Dan Najib akan terima apa sahaja keputusan Abdullah untuk meleraikan masalah yang timbul. Di dalam kes ini, Abdullah akan tetap dengan pendiriannya untuk kekal hingga Jun 2010 atau mungkin awal sedikit sebelumnya. Najib kemudian akan ditugaskan untuk "menjual" keputusan ini kepada Majlis Tertinggi. Dengan ini Najib akan lebih dipandang rendah oleh ahli majlis dan rakyat apabila sikapnya ini didedahkan kepada umum.
8. Apabila UMNO ditubuhkan, pemimpin terdahulu memastikan yang tidak akan ada keputusan-keputusan yang bercanggah dengan asas perjuangan parti dibuat tanpa terlebih dahulu mendapat kelulusan Majlis Tertinggi. Apa yang terjadi kepada Dato Onn, Yang di-Pertua UMNO yang pertama merupakan contoh terbaik. Presiden tidak diturut secara buta-tuli. Sebaliknya apabila beliau mencadang sesuatu yang bercanggah dengan perjuangan parti, cadangan beliau ditolak dan sebagai seseorang yang mempunyai maruah, beliau telah mengundur diri.
9. Selama lebih kurang 50 tahun, Majlis Tertinggi memain peranan ini. Demikian apabila (Tun) Musa Hitam meletak jawatan sebagai Timbalan Presiden parti, Majlis Tertinggi yang bersidang tidak bersetuju bulat-bulat dengan Presiden, sebaliknya bermesyuarat hingga ke awal pagi dan membuat keputusan, walau apa juga pendapat Presiden, untuk menghantar satu delegasi yang terdiri daripada ahli-ahli kanan majlis ke London untuk memujuk Musa menerima kembali jawatan Timbalan Presiden parti dan Timbalan Perdana Menteri. Musa bersetuju kembali sebagai Timbalan Presiden tetapi tidak sebagai Timbalan Perdana Menteri. Dengan itu beliau berada di landasan yang baik untuk cuba menjatuhkan saya dengan mempengaruhi Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah bertanding jawatan presiden menentang saya. Secara kebetulan semasa berkempen untuk bertanding jawatan Timbalan Presiden UMNO, beliau mendakwa mendapat sokongan saya.
10. Tetapi apabila Abdullah mengambil alih Presiden parti merangkap Perdana Menteri, perwatakan Majlis Tertinggi bertukar. Ianya menjadi alat peribadi Abdullah untuk melulus dan menghalalkan apa sahaja yang beliau buat.
11. Saya percaya pada hari Khamis keadaan ini telah berubah sedikit. Beberapa orang ahli telah berani meyuarakan desakan supaya Abdullah melepas jawatan awal. Sudah tentulah penyokongnya tidak beralih arah. Demikian ada kemungkinan majlis pecah dua.
12. Saya rasa ini merisaukan Najib yang hendakkan peralihan kuasa secara aman supaya parti tidak pecah-belah. Oleh itu dia akan terima apa sahaja cadangan yang membenarkan Abdullah lepaskan jawatan dengan penuh kegemilangan.
13. Malangnya Najib tidak akan capai impiannya. Tidak pernah ada Presiden UMNO yang begitu sekali dibenci rakyat seperti Abdullah. Melayu, Cina dan India, samada ahli parti komponen Kerajaan mahupun penyokongnya atau rakyat kebanyakan kesemuanya mahukan Abdullah mengundur diri. Lagi cepat lagi baik.
14. Yang mahukan beliau terus pegang jawatan adalah mereka yang kedudukan mereka bergantung kepadanya, atau mereka yang mendapt untung daripada pemberian kontrak dan sebagainya oleh beliau. Bagi sesetengah yang lain, termasuk kakitangan awam, hanya ketakutan terhadapnya yang menyebabkan mereka tidak mahu bersuara tetapi mereka tetap marah.
15. Yang peliknya ialah yang benar-benar menyokong Abdullah sebagai Perdana Menteri dan Presiden UMNO adalah pembangkang. Karpal Singh, Anwar Ibrahim dan Nik Abdul Aziz Nik Mat hendakkan beliau (Abdullah) kekal sekurang-kurangnya hingga pilihanraya akan datang.
16. Tetapi ini bukanlah kerana mereka sayang kepadanya tetapi kerana mereka percaya dengan beliau mengepalai Barisan Nasional, pembangkang mempunyai peluang yang lebih cerah memenangi pilihanraya umum ke-13 dan mendirikan Kerajaan. Mereka rasakan yang mereka hampir mencapai matlamat mereka dan tidak mahu golongan yang memberontak di dalam UMNO, MCA, MIC, Gerakan dan PPP kembali kepada parti dan menyukarkan usaha mereka untuk kalahkan BN.
17. Begitulah Majlis Tertinggi yang tidakpun lagi tinggi.
I write this as a Malaysian, as someone who, over forty seven years of political life, has had the privilege of playing some small part in the formation our country, the building of its institutions, and our achievement of a degree of economic sufficiency. I write out of deep concern about the present state of our country.
In the lives of nations as of individuals, there come moments of profound possibility, when the potential for self-transcendence and for self-destruction are simultaneously present.
As before some critical examination in our youth, we come to the daunting realization that we hold our future in our hands, when how we will fare many years hence, and whether we shall flourish or languish, will depend on how we conduct ourselves now, in this small window of time.
We are in a political impasse that threatens to metastasize into a Constitutional crisis. Political crises come and go, but the present crisis might well be the beginning of a cascade of failures leading to long-term instability and destruction.
Post election promises notwithstanding however, the government now commands even less confidence than it did post March 8.
The public is in near despair over the prospects for change from within the ruling party. Rather than share the public's sense of urgency, our present office-holders have redoubled efforts to frustrate renewal, cut off reform, and silence criticism. These efforts only underscore the weakness of the administration and its will to change.
We can no longer deny that in its present form, and under present leadership, the government, led by the party to which I have given my life, is now structurally and inherently incapable of providing the direction and confidence that the country needs, whether over the long or short term. The indications are there for all to see:
This resort to a "transition plan" betrays a disturbing failure to grasp the meaning and purpose of public office. In the more mature society into which we aspire to grow, persons who demonstrate and moreover propagate such disregard for constitutional and democratic process would long ago have been disqualified from public life, let alone from national leadership. The news appears not to have sunk in that the public rejects leaders who shun the open light of democratic contest in favour of staged plays and backroom plots.
Given Umno's core role in national politics, this is a dangerous state of affairs. Meanwhile the Opposition has made undeniable gains in the number of parliamentarians it commands. Beyond the hype and inflation, and regardless of whether Pakatan Rakyat now has "the numbers" to command a majority, what we cannot doubt is that support for the governing majority continues to erode, and that this erosion continues so long as there is no hope of real change in the type of leadership Umno provides. There is now a credible threat that the present government may at some time fall by a vote of no confidence, or by some otherwise constitutionally legitimate demonstration of parliamentary majority. After fifty-one years of rule by a single party, this is not a possibility that is well understood. It is justifiably viewed with trepidation. Neither sheer denial on the one hand, or inflated claims on the other, help the situation.
To all appearances, we are beginning to lose grip of the rule of law. The use of the Internal Security Act and of Sedition Laws to target particular individuals further erodes the credibility of the government. Our actions exacerbate rather than calm the fear that stokes civil and racial strife. In the present context of a leadership struggle within Umno and against a strong Opposition it is impossible to dispel the notion that these extreme measures are calculated to maintain certain individuals in power rather than to address verifiable threats to national security. Nothing does more to undermine the legitimacy of a government than plainly unjust acts. The ridiculous justifications given for some of these detentions has further undermined public confidence that the awesome powers of state are in safe hands.
We cannot afford to allow these disturbing trends to play out their destructive course while we suffer a de facto leadership vacuum, and while the rule of law is uncertain and the Constitution not upheld.
Against this background I appeal to all parties to come together in humility, beyond party politics, to hold an honest discussion, in the spirit of shared citizenship and with the gravest attitude of common responsibility towards a long suffering rakyat, about what is happening to our country and how we might agree together on a peaceful way beyond our impasse. We need to come together to find unity and direction out of this dangerous situation. In doing so, we might turn our crisis into an opportunity and renew our unity and sense of direction as Malaysia.
Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah 31 Jalan Langgak Golf 55000 Kuala Lumpur